Beyond The Moon #33 - Bitcoin Surges to a Multi-Month High: What’s Driving the Rally?

Bitcoin experienced one of its most bullish weeks in months, posting a solid 9% gain on the CME futures exchange.

This marks the most significant price appreciation since the first week of September when bitcoin surged over 11%.

With increased institutional inflows and an uptick in bitcoin dominance, the market sentiment appears to be shifting in favor of bitcoin.

Bitcoin Dominance Soaring To The New Moon

The bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) metric, a key indicator of bitcoin’s market share relative to other cryptocurrencies, has surged to levels not seen since 2020. By the end of the week, BTC.D hit an impressive 59%, meaning bitcoin now commands 59% of the total crypto market capitalization. This is a significant breakout, suggesting strong bullish momentum for bitcoin.

Historically, rising bitcoin dominance tends to signal bearish pressure on altcoins, as capital shifts away from riskier assets and into bitcoin. While bitcoin’s dominance is climbing, altcoins are struggling to maintain their value, reinforcing the current trend of a “bitcoin-first” market. This shift could continue as investors focus on bitcoin’s relative stability amid growing uncertainty in global markets.

ETF Flows Hit New Record High!

Over the past week, spot bitcoin ETF flows hit new record highs for the year, signaling increasing investor interest and confidence. By the end of the week, total net assets in bitcoin ETFs had surged to $66.11 billion, surpassing the previous high of $62.65 billion set in June.

Monday saw particularly strong activity, with over $555 million in capital flowing into bitcoin. Interestingly, this inflow occurred while the price remained stable, indicating that institutional investors are continuing to accumulate bitcoin even at elevated price levels, possibly anticipating further upside.

One of the key contributors to this spike was BlackRock’s IBIT fund, which took in nearly $400 million in net flows on Wednesday alone. Remarkably, for the first time since data has been available, there were no outflows from any spot bitcoin ETFs this week — a clear sign that the market is in a strong accumulation phase.

Political Betting Odds Influencing Market Direction

An important narrative that’s gaining attention is the potential impact of U.S. politics on bitcoin. As previously discussed in our newsletters, a Trump election win is widely perceived as bullish for the crypto industry. His administration is expected to adopt a more favorable stance on digital assets, including potentially supporting legislation for a bitcoin strategic reserve, an idea that has gained some traction in political circles.

With the U.S. elections just two weeks away, market participants are already factoring in the potential outcomes. Betting markets currently give Trump a strong chance of winning, with Trump now having nearly a 17 percentage point advantage over Harris, an increase of 20 percentage points since last week.

As we move closer to the U.S. election, expect to see continued volatility and possibly more bullish momentum for bitcoin. The combination of record-high ETF inflows, rising bitcoin dominance, and the increasing likelihood of pro-bitcoin political outcomes is setting the stage for a potentially explosive November.

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