A popular Wall Street idiom is “sell in May and go away.” Applying this strategy for bitcoin investors and traders would have been a missed opportunity this past month, as bitcoin gained over 11%, or close to $7,000, in May.

The monthly closing price of $67,500 was the second highest in history, falling just short of the previous monthly record high of $71,300 seen back in March. On the week itself, bitcoin lost 2%, a marginal decline considering the average volatility of bitcoin’s price action over the past few months.

ETF Flows Update

Bitcoin spot ETFs continued their winning streak, now marking 14 straight business days of continuous inflows. This is the longest streak of consecutive inflows since February. At the end of May, total inflows stood at $58 billion, an $11 billion increase from the $47 billion total seen at the end of April. The inflows throughout the month of May represented a 23% net increase in total aggregate AUM across all the various spot ETF products. The maximum inflows and outflows occurred on Friday. With over $169 million in inflows from Blackrock’s IBIT ETF, and conversely a -$124 million in outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC fund.

Bitcoin & The 2024 Election

Former President Donald Trump, reversing his earlier skepticism from his first presidential term, endorsed bitcoin and cryptocurrency at the Libertarian National Convention earlier this week. He promised to support self-custody rights and vowed to commute the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, appealing to the greater crypto community. This move has pivoted President Biden to adopt a more pro-crypto stance, making the 2024 election heavily focused on cryptocurrency policies and signaling the growing political influence of digital currencies, bitcoin in particular.

June Price Data

Looking back to June 2011, bitcoin has had 8 out of 14 months in the green during June throughout its 14-year price history on the BLX index, implying a 57% likelihood of June being a positive month for bitcoin.

Although a common theme in the crypto trading community is that June and the summer months, in general, are a bearish time for bitcoin and the overall crypto market, the statistical data shows a higher likelihood of June being bullish rather than bearish. With bitcoin’s monthly chart flirting with all-time highs, it will be interesting to see if bitcoin can make a push to retest its previous all-time high of $74,000 this month.

Bitcoin Options Derivative Data

Examining the options exchange data for bitcoin, we see an interesting divergence between call and put options on the derivatives exchanges. Aggregated, there are 160,000 BTC on the call side, representing a notional value of $11 billion in open options interest.

This contrasts with 81,000 BTC on the put side, representing a notional value of just over $5 billion. In other words, the options market is currently positioned twice as much towards the long side as opposed to the short side.

The dominant positioning in call options might imply that many investors expect the price of bitcoin to rise. If many of these call options are exercised or hedged, it could lead to further upward pressure on bitcoin’s price.

‍