Bitcoin’s $600 Billion Layer 2 Opportunity

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Bitcoin has remained the largest cryptocurrency in the market since its inception in January 2009; however, bitcoin is far from the only cryptocurrency in the market. Currently, bitcoin’s dominance of the cryptocurrency market share is measured at just under 55%, and the dominance metric has been on a downward slide since the 95% level it once held, all the way back in 2013.

The bitcoin dominance index (BDI) is far from a perfect measurement of the cryptocurrency market, but it’s undeniable that alternative cryptocurrencies have become more prominent over the years, especially in times of large boom cycles.

That said, recent developments in the Bitcoin Layer 2 network ecosystem could reverse this trend. While cryptocurrency users have opted for alternative networks in search of specific use cases not available on bitcoin in the past, such as enhanced privacy or more expressive smart contracts, the boom in new networks pegged to bitcoin can enable all of these use cases and more on the world’s oldest and most valuable cryptocurrency network.

Layer 2 networks have the potential to bring all of the innovation that has taken place outside of bitcoin back to the world’s first blockchain, a feat that has been theorized for at least ten years. Does this mean the cryptocurrency market’s current total valuation of $2.4 trillion will all be sucked up by bitcoin?

Let’s take a closer look at how this return to bitcoin could happen and how it could affect the bitcoin price going forward.

Bringing The DeFi Market To Bitcoin

When it comes to cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin, the vast majority of the market is built around blockchains with more expressive smart contracting capabilities. Ethereum, which is the second largest cryptocurrency network by its market cap of $408 billion as of this writing, is the most obvious example here. There are also a number of chains that have built off the success of Ethereum by copying the technology and building out networks that are compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM). Some of the most prominent examples of Ethereum copycats include BNB Chain, Avalanche, and Tron. Additionally, Solana has attempted to carve out its own niche with its own development environment and a focus on on-chain scaling. Ethereum itself has taken a similar approach to bitcoin in terms of scaling via a multi-layer approach.

With these blockchains that enable more expressivity in smart contract development, decentralized applications (dApps) have been built that are intended to enable cryptocurrency use cases other than simple payments. Protocols for decentralized exchanges, lending, liquid staking, and more are some of the more prominent examples of dApps that have been built on Ethereum and other, similar chains. Due to the applications that can be used on these cryptocurrency networks, they’re also where stablecoins are generally issued — despite the fact that the largest stablecoin, Tether USD, was originally issued on a meta protocol on top of bitcoin. Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and meme coins also first rose to prominence on these sorts of blockchains; however, the developments of Ordinals and Runestones has already brought those use cases back to bitcoin.

Decentralized finance (DeFi) has become an enormous aspect of the overall cryptocurrency market, with DeFiLlama estimating the total value locked (TVL) in various protocols at just under $100 billion. However, less than 2% of that TVL is found on bitcoin and its various Layer 2 networks. In fact, most of the DeFi activity that involves bitcoin currently takes place on Ethereum via the wrapped bitcoin (WBTC) ERC-20 token, which involves the backing of a centralized custodian.

Bitcoin Layer 2 Networks For DeFi

While there is some DeFi-related activity found on bitcoin’s base blockchain, the possibilities are rather limited due to the lack of expressive smart contracts at that layer. For this reason, many of the DeFi apps built around bitcoin are likely to be found on L2 networks. Many of these L2s, such as Lorenzo App Chain, are compatible with the EVM and can deploy any DeFi app that has already been deployed on Ethereum.

In some ways, Ethereum itself is already an L2 of sorts for bitcoin due to the level of success achieved by the aforementioned WBTC up to this point. However, there is plenty of room for improvements that can be made via true L2s that can enable more secure two-way peg mechanisms and remove the need for a non-bitcoin cryptocurrency to pay for gas. Indeed, the recent improvements to the two-way peg model based on federated, multisig custody made possible by BitVM were a key catalyst for the recent revival of Bitcoin Layer 2 developments.

This puts into question the need for alternative blockchains at the base layer, especially for those who view bitcoin as the base money of the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, this allows bitcoin’s base, monetary layer to remain sufficiently decentralized and begin to ossify while also extending the capabilities of the cryptocurrency via L2s. After all, it is the credibility of bitcoin’s unwavering monetary policy that differentiates it from other, more centralized cryptocurrencies on the market. This is one of the main reasons it makes sense to use bitcoin as the base layer of a greater DeFi ecosystem.

The Alternative Cryptocurrency Market

Outside of smart contracts, the other major use case for cryptocurrencies outside of bitcoin is payments. There are two main categories of payment-focused cryptocurrencies that offer potential advantages over bitcoin: privacy cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrencies with low transaction fees.

In terms of privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, Monero and Zcash are the two most prominent examples. Notably, the core technologies used in both of these cryptocurrencies were first proposed for bitcoin itself; however, those changes were never made to bitcoin due to the associated tradeoffs in various areas such as scalability and auditability.

While bitcoin’s main on-chain privacy enhancer, CoinJoin, has faced legal attacks in the form of the arrests of the founders of Samourai Wallet and the complete shutdown of Wasabi Wallet, there are a variety of ways to enhance privacy through L2 networks. Ark is a notable L2 payments protocol that also provides a high degree of privacy for its users. Mercury Layer also enables off-chain coin swaps that can provide privacy gains for users. Additionally, Fedimint enables traditional anonymous digital cash via a federated custody model.

In terms of more hypothetical L2s that could enhance bitcoin privacy, there is nothing to stop an anonymous developer from deploying a version of Tornado Cash on any of the EVM-compatible L2s. Additionally, a Zcash drivechain may eventually find its way to the Bitcoin L2 ecosystem. Of course, a privacy-focused proof-of-stake L2 could be launched using Lorenzo’s existing staking liquidity as well.

There have been many cryptocurrencies marketed as cheaper alternatives to bitcoin. Some of the major examples include XRP, dogecoin, bitcoin cash, and litecoin, which account for over $50 billion of the cryptocurrency market when combined. Of course, bitcoin’s answer to this particular use case is the Lightning Network. However, there are still some potential usability issues here, especially when it comes to the need to make a potentially expensive on-chain transaction to open a channel. The aforementioned Ark protocol may eventually turn into an alternative to the Lightning Network, which doesn’t necessitate an on-chain transaction to get started. There’s also the possibility for a sidechain with a large block size limit to develop; however, it’s important to remember that solution comes with tradeoffs in terms of centralization.

While payments-focused cryptocurrencies tend to be a smaller part of the entire cryptocurrency market cap, they’re still an important aspect of bitcoin’s development over the long term, as it evolves from a store of value to also becoming a more prominent medium of exchange.

$600 Billion And Beyond

The current total cryptocurrency market cap of $2.4 trillion can be misleading, as this metric oftentimes includes errors in the form of double counting the same underlying asset in multiple forms (e.g. bitcoin and wrapped bitcoin) or overstated market caps of tokens with highly centralized supply distributions. Additionally, there are some crypto tokens, such as NFTs and meme coins, that bitcoin is inherently unable to replace.

That said, it’s clear that there is a $600 billion or more opportunity for bitcoin here in terms of replacing the most popular DeFi platforms and alternative cryptocurrencies with L2 solutions. After all, just Ethereum and Solana combined are currently worth more than $470 billion.

Of course, the current overall cryptocurrency market cap is also not the limit on how large bitcoin can grow. And centralizing all major crypto use cases around bitcoin as the base currency is a major step on the cryptocurrency’s path towards becoming, as Twitter and Square co-founder Jack Dorsey puts it, the native currency of the internet. Once bitcoin establishes itself as the king of the digital financial realm, it can obtain the necessary liquidity and network effects to then begin to make an impact in the real world.

In other words, before bitcoin can rival gold and the U.S. dollar in any real way, it must first defeat the likes of ETH, XRP, and DOGE. Additionally, access to a more liquid and stable cryptocurrency benefits the DeFi apps themselves, as that cryptocurrency would perform better as collateral for various use cases. It also makes things less mentally taxing for the end user, as they only need to worry about one form of digital money. While stablecoins are the dominant medium of exchange in the crypto market today, their centralized nature makes them subject to restrictions and regulations. In many ways, stablecoins are more of an evolution of the preexisting, fiat currency system rather than a revolution in money and finance from the base layer.

Through the development of various Bitcoin L2s, whether it be the Lightning Network for payments or Lorenzo App Chain for Ethereum-esque DeFi apps, it’s clear that bitcoin has the ability to adopt all cryptocurrency use cases and therefore usurp the vast majority of the cryptocurrency market cap (outside of non-fungible tokens and meme coins). Additionally, further developing bitcoin’s network effects by bringing altcoin liquidity back to the original cryptocurrency will lead to a stronger and more stable native currency for the internet.

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